Forced migration from Ukraine: thoughts and decision-making about return
The article examines the factors influencing the decision to return of the forcibly displaced abroad Ukrainians as a result of Russia’s full-scale war against Ukraine. The authors analyse and summarise the theoretical foundations and results of current research on return migration, in particular, models of decision-making on return and factors that encourage or discourage return. The authors draw on the results of a study of the experience of forced displacement abroad and opinions on returning to Ukraine conducted by the Cedos think tank. The data were collected in October – December 2024 as part of an online survey and focus group discussions with forcibly displaced people. The authors determine that return is rather a separate migration cycle than the final stage of a previous migration process. It is demonstrated that after returning, people often find themselves in a different social, economic, and geographical context than they were in previously. Based on analysed approaches, three models of decision-making regarding return migration are proposed: voluntary, forced due to external factors, and forced due to personal circumstances. The analysis of current research concludes that economic theories are limited in ability to explain return migration. Despite the importance of economic factors, emotional ties to the community and the country as a whole also have a significant impact on decision-making. The article also identifies the following factors that are key in considerations about returning: safety, housing, home, employment, community, emotional ties to the country and patriotic feelings, healthcare, social protection, and opportunities for children. The article illustrates that the same factors can both incline to return to Ukraine and to the decision to stay abroad, as well as cause both voluntary and forced decisions to (not) return.
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